Softwarization: Red and Blue Strategies

Softwarization will bring risks and opportunities for Telecom Operators and Technology Providers Just imagine two scenarios:

Scenario Red: gradual evolution (continuity)

This is about pursuing a gradual evolution of SDN-NFV onto the legacy Telco infrastructures: e.g., starting from virtualizing some functionality. Main challenges will interoperability of SDN-NFV with legacy systems, need of standardized interfaces (a long way) and above all need of updating, enhancing of the legacy operational processes, e.g. OSS/BSS, to cope with SDN-NFV (quite challenging and complicated).

Scenario Blue: disruption (point of discontinuity)

Some Players (even unexpectedly new) will exploit full potential of “softwarization” much faster than the gradual evolution of legacy Telecom infrastructure (scenario Red), so that they will jumps ahead in the markets, as fully Virtual Operators. Markets will decide the “Standard de facto”. As Virtual Operators they will adopt faster operational processes (IT-style) dramatically shortening the time-to-market a la OTT.

What will be the impact on current ecosystems and value chains ?

SDN linking Cloud with Fog

Fog Computing is (in a sentence) about executing services and storing data (at least some of them) in a “fog” of devices, terminals, machines, etc which are around the Users, at the edge of the current Telecommunication networks. So it’s about extending the Cloud Computing model, with a different density, to the edge.

Main characteristics of Fog Computing include: proximity to Users; highly dense distribution; support for mobility.  Apparently another buzzword, but in reality expression of a much broader technology trend transforming our terminals (smartphones, laptop, tablets, etc) in more and more powerful devices. Imagine also machines, smart-things, robots/cobots, vehicles becoming meta-terminals of the future.

This may have big impacts: Cloud will be soon complemented by the Fog, or even replaced for certain type of applications, when using local data! Also this floating “fog” of devices, terminals, machines at the edge will give rise to new biz models, based on various forms of competition and cooperation between existing Providers, and new ones, entering the arena. And the network – between the Cloud and Fog – will be fully virtualised (SDN-NFV).

So, ideally, it will be possible creating, programming, instantiating or migrating dynamically different types of virtual functionalities and services as well as alternatives of the same. No more ossified architectures. In other words a sort of an ephemeral virtual continuum will have the flexibility of plastically self-adapting to humans’ dynamics. This is the point.

Already today this is acquiring a growing interest in social networking: this is about modelling and predicting the dynamics of groups of people, the viral diffusions of certain ideas or concepts, use of resources, or even the potential adoption of products and ICT services. In other words, it’s about identifying emerging global behaviours, or ways to predict, trigger or incentive masses movements or markets. This will be rewarded directly by the market itself, which will be essential encouragement for further investments.

Imagine also the convergence of Internet and the social attitude of humans: beyond sites such as Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, MySpace, Wikipedia, YouTube there is a broader process to form connections with others, to build groups, to engage communications, to exchange services.  A political message, or a piece of news or a meme, or a service are examples of "things"that can spread from person to person, enterprise to enterprise, etc in an epidemic way: in a while, millions of people can create and destroy ephemeral aggregations.

My take is that “softwarization” should look also this: how a“virtual continuum” of ICT resources could anticipate/adapt plastically to humans’ - and maybe also machines’ – needs and dynamics in the market.

“Softwarization” will go “borderless”

It has been argued several times that “Softwarization” will be a game-changer for the Telecom and ICT domains.

Looking at the control variable of “Softwarization” I would even more argue that it will be a game-changer for the whole Economy and Society. Well, the technical ideas (decoupling software from hardware, virtualizing, programming APIs, etc) are not really new, but what is new today is the economic sustainability of “Softwarization”, which will be made possible by the current diffusion of ultra-broadband, the down-spiraling costs of chipset/hardware and the impressive advances in processing and storage.

A number of R&D Communities and Industries are converging on that, and cross-influencing each other. World is smaller and smaller, and innovation is propagating "virally". 

So, my take is that, in long term, “Softwarization” will go “borderless”: the border between the network and what is connected to the network will gradually disappear; more and more powerful Users’ terminals, devices, machines, smart things, robots, cobots…will become like meta-terminals or networks nodes, storing data locally and even executing network functionalities and service component. For example, “Softwarization” at the edge and Internet of Things will easily merge in a sort of “virtual continuum” of logical resources: a sort of pervasive “fabric” spanning from Users’ terminals, devices, machines, smart things, etc to the network nodes, up to the Cloud Computing.

It makes no more sense thinking in terms of “closed boxes”: future will be borderless.

Just imagine the multitude of services that could be provided (to Enterprises, residential Users, robots, machines and avatars included) by “borderless” and highly dynamic platforms of logical resources, fully decoupled from the underneath physical infrastructures. Exponential new technologies in digital money, mobile commerce, and big data will take benefit of that. This is a huge wave of innovation running over all Industries and bringing new development and costs reductions by automating (i.e., optimizing) “processes”. This is the main point "processes".

But there is a risk. If it is true that Telecom Operators and Manufacturers are showing great interest on SDN and NFV, at the same time, a wide deployment in “inertial scenarios” will take several years and it is unlikely it will initiated without strong motivations (that cannot be found just in increasing flexibility or programmability of current legacy infrastructures). In fact, there are OSS/BSS processes in place that a true SDN-NFV deployment would require changing dramatically. The risk is that “inertial scenarios” will be surpassed by “disruptive scenarios”, requiring less investments than an “inertial” evolution of legacy towards true SDN-NFV infrastructures. 

What is more likely to happen - in the short-medium term - (just my take) is that “Softwarization” will be exploited “at the edge” of current Telecom Infrastructure, with the challenge of orchestrating the logical layers of a variety of local networks distributed in different ownership domains, something that will happen already with the 5G, by 2020. In the meanwhile, other disruptive scenarios will take place with new roles and Player entering the arena.

Open Source Software for Softwarization

Last post has argued that open source software can be considered one of the key “control variables” of “Softwarization” of network and service platforms. A lot of software is already there, today, but the point here is about decoupling it from hardware (as in SDN proposition), making it open source, and executing said software (e.g., implementing network functionalities) on virtual logical resources (as in NFV proposition) dynamically allocated/orchestrated on (even standard) hardware.

What will be the impact ? And how long would it take to become virally adopted ?

Looking at the past, there have been some examples of successful development and adoption of Open Source Software, producing a strong impact on the market, even in short span of time (e.g., less than 5 years).

Linux kernel is one prominent example: it is a Unix-like operating system released (around 1994) under the GNU General Public License version (GPLv2). The Linux kernel is used by a variety of operating systems based on it, which are usually in the form of Linux distributions. An example of “good enough” but simpler and cheaper operating system. The popularity of Linux virally diffused across developers and users. According to recent analysis from IDC, Linux servers now represent 28.5% of all server revenue (which means, given their lower costs with respect to other commercial servers, a much larger market share).

Apache is another example. Apache has been the most popular web server on the Internet since April 1996. Apache adoption diffused virally reaching about 60% of the market in about 5 years. Today, 385 million sites are now powered by Apache, landing today on a 37.45% share of the market.

Concerning open source OS for smartphone, in Q2 2014 Android rose to about 85% of the global market share. As known, most of Android is free and open source, even if a large amount of software on Android devices (such as Play Store, Google Search, Google Play Services, Google Music, and so on) are proprietary and licensed.  Interestingly, this piece of news mentioned the potential intention of an OTT to deploy SDN-like capabilities and protocols into Android (a way to extend the SD-x model to the very edge of the infrastructure, up to the Users’ mobile phones. Google does not charge a fee for companies that install Android on their devices. Nevertheless every installed copy of Android gives Google potential customers for its services and encourages Developers to build apps for the platform, this creating ecosystems around Android.

Coming to Cloud, SDN, NFV…we have several other recent examples. OpenStack is an open source platforms that can be used to provide Cloud services. OpenStack is being developed by the OpenStack Foundation, originally founded by NASA and RackSpace but now comprising a large group of technology companies. Several companies in the Foundation run public cloud services on the OpenStack platform (comparable with Amazon’s Elastic Computing Cloud EC2). OpenStack has been launched in 2010 and today dominates the market with a 69% adoption rate of IT Enterprises offering Cloud Computing services.

And, no need mentioning the long list of open source SDN controllers (see for example SDx). Moreover, a few weeks ago, ON.LAB has released in open source an operating systems (ON.OS) for SDN-like networks: after the release some Telco Network and Service Providers immediately announced that they will start testing it for assessing a future potential deployment in production environments.

In summary, my take (looking at past) is that if an open source software solution will be developed and released with the support of a critical mass of companies, it is likely that in about 5 years it will reach at least 60% adoption in the related market. And this could create a very strong impact on the related ecosystems.

Control Variables of “Softwarization”

It has been mentioned several times that “Softwarization” is a global systemic trend, appearing under the form of several technologies and models, such as Cloud Computing, Edge-Fog Computing, SDN, NFV, etc, which are sharing the same common denominator: “any transactions, functions and services can be seen as applications executed on (virtual/logical resources hosted in) low cost distributed hardware”. This is the essence of a “game-changer” which is bringing, in a few years, far-reaching implications in the Digital Society and Economy. 

So, “Softwarization” is paving the way towards the 5G.

In fact, Industries (both Large and Small Medium ones) and other Institutions embracing this paradigm will see dramatic costs optimizations, whatever will be their business sector. It’s about “digitalizing and then optimizing” the processes (e.g., in Industry, in Agriculture, in Services, in the Public Sectors, etc) with Industrial Mathematics.

In the near future, robots, smart things and machines will become the new “tools” – directly controlled through the 5G – supporting/helping humans in their daily tasks, jobs and activities. Not only in factories, or in the agriculture, but also in the smart cities and at home. This is like saying that 5G will become like a Nervous System of Digital Society and Economy. Technologies are (almost) ready and the it is likely to be sustainable (even when communications will be just commodities) !

Just imagine the socio-economic impact of Virtual Network/Service Providers, renting physical (L0 and L1) resources (from Infrastructure Providers) for exploiting their virtual platforms (L2 to L7), so to provide - globally - services to Digital Single Markets ! Less investments will be required to enter new markets and the businesses will be oriented towards a "pay-as-you-go" model. An opportunity or a risk, depending on how you're looking at it.

Nevertheless, as I mentioned in the previous post, this wave of innovation may have different strategies of adoption, and levels of impacts, depending on a number variables, not only concerning technology maturity, but also business sustainability, regulatory rules and willingness to change, to adapt.

As a matter of fact, all these systemic interdependencies of the multiple variables of today Society and Economy are transforming our socio-economic environment in a sort of global "complex system". And like in any “complex system”, which typically non-linear, even small changes in the so-called “control variables” could produce sudden and highly impactful changes in the overall system (the well-known butterfly effect).

So it makes sense, looking for those “control variables” of  “Softwarization” in order to understand, and possibly predict, when and how (I'm not saying "if") this dramatic “phase transition” will occur, and, above all, what will be the scenarios, after said transition, and what evolution/adaptation is needed. Just taking time…or focussing on narrow, fragmented approaches, might not be the best investment! In natural ecosystems, during changes, the best surviving species are those which are capable of fast understanding and adapting.

A systemic thinking is required. Linear approaches are not enough during these types of changes.

In this analysis, we should be able to “extract simplicity from the appearing complexity”. The number of control variables should be limited enough, but complete, to cover most (if not all) the dynamics of the socio-economic environment.

My take is that the “Softwarization” way towards 5G will be impacted by the following key control variables:

• Hardware equation: chip-sets performances/costs curve (for servers, terminals, embedded systems, etc)
• Open Source Software: viral diffusion of pre-industrial product (e.g. a global operating systems)
•  Network Performances: increasing of bandwidth, towards 0-latency, stability…
• Standards-de-facto: winner will take it all (market will decide)
• Reasons why: improving quality of life (new services), costs optimizations, new jobs…
• Rules of the game: what regulation environment to create new development
• Level of trustiness: dependability, security, privacy…
• ...others ?

Obviously, there might be others, and others strictly related to these ones.

Then, each of these variables should be subjected to a breakdown analysis to understand what’s the best strategic positioning to tame potential risks and/or to be ready to exploit the opportunities of the coming 5G transition towards the Digital Society and Economy!

We'll go through these variables in the next posts.

Softwarization: two scenarios towards 5G

In the IEEE SDN initiative we wish dealing with SDN-NFV adopting a “systemic” perspective.

In fact, I believe that Cloud (and Fog) Computing, SDN and NFV are just different expressions of the same systemic trend (impacting not only the Telco networks by also several other segments and Industries) which is called “Softwarization”. This trend has been/is triggered and steered mainly by ultra-broadband diffusion (i.e., high bandwidth and low latency connections) and the IT techno-economic drivers (e.g. increasing performance of chipsets, at continuously decreasing costs). This wave of innovation may have different levels of impact on the Telco infrastructures, depending on several variables, among which the speed and level of adoption of “Softwarization” by said industries, the foreseen models for business sustainability and the regulatory issues.

Personally I believe that these trends will potentially bring soon into reality (at least) two main scenarios, characterized highly different techno-economic perspectives:

·    Scenario 1: an evolutionary scenario, based on a smooth and gradual introduction of SDN (coupled with NFV) into the legacy Telco networks, e.g., starting from virtualizing network functionality; communities looking at this scenario are focusing on short-medium term challenges such as interoperability aspects of virtualized network functions with the systems of current infrastructures, integration of orchestration capabilities with the OSS (e.g., ETSI reference model), Standardization of relevant interfaces, etc.

·         Scenario 2: a disruptive scenario (where speed of adoption of innovation is much faster, so that it will jumps ahead any gradual evolution of current infrastructures as described in Scenario 1.). In this case “Softwarization” should be seen from a more “systemic” perspective, which is going far beyond the network and the Cloud, but it is reaching also terminals, smart phones, machines, smart things, robots, etc. The market will decide the standards the facto.

This second scenario is clearly disruptive. A main point  is the “lowering of the threshold” for other Players to enter the Telco market to offer services (as potential competitors).  As a matter of fact, this progressive “threshold lowering” is driven by chipsets technology advances and cost reductions (bringing to more and more powerful IT systems at lower and lower costs), and by the large availability of Open Source software solutions (examples are the open source operating systems for the Cloud and the network, respectively OpenStack and ON.OS, etc).

In this sense there is the risk a number of other Players (even with limited investments, much lower than in the past) will be able to provide services (with different business models) using low-cost software platforms of virtual resources, spanning from the terminal to the cloud (Opex-oriented model), and by using “lean” operational processes. This would mean that the gradual evolution of current Telco networks towards SDN-NFV (scenario 1) could be “surpassed” by this disruptive approach, creating a “point-of-discontinuity”.

In this case, the full potential of this wave of innovation could be "materialized" into the 5G which could become a sort of border-less “continuum of virtual resources and services” (hosted part in the Network, part in the Cloud but also part at the Edge i.e., up to end-Users terminals, devices, and smart things…). This virtual “continuum” would be capable of enabling new service models (eventually creating new roles for Operators, as well) and new business ecosystems (in industry, agriculture and social contexts). Lean operations, highly flexibility and programmability (via multiple level APIs) will be other main features of such innovative perspective, opening new ecosystems.

Adopting innovation at this level it will be possible enabling the so-called the “servitization” (e.g., anybody and anything ...even a piece of software!... will become a Prosumer of services) , and the “de-perimetrization” of services (e.g., global provisioning of any services where it will be possible for a Service Provider simply renting a physical infrastructure from Infrastructure Providers).

Towards 5G: the Nervous System of Digital Society

Cloud and Fog Computing, Software Defined Networking (SDN) and Network Function Virtualisation (NFV) are just different facets of this same evolutionary trend which is called IT-sation or Softwarisation of infrastructures. No way to look at them separately. And this trend will change dramatically the nature of telecommunications infrastructures by automating Operations processes (thus reducing costs), by increasing flexibility and programmability (e.g., through APIs). At the end of the day (which is a few years), it will create a point of discontinuity.

This new wave of innovation will be brought to concrete exploitations and socio-economic impact through the 5G infrastructure by 2020. In fact, 5G will be more than a next step beyond 4G, it will become the “Nervous System” of the Digital Society and Economy, a truly converged and massively dense telecommunications infrastructure, deeply integrating IT (e.g., processing and storage systems) with Network resources. In other words, 5G will become the pervasive, highly flexible and ultra-low latency virtualized infrastructure capable of hooking the sheer number of smart terminals, devices, machines, things, cars, drones and robots…with the enormous processing and storage power available in the Cloud.

As a matter of fact, the number of smart terminals, machines, things (with sensors and actuators) attached to current networks is growing rapidly, and soon it will be possible to connect and operated cars, drones and even robots. All these systems will literally become like 5G future “advanced terminals”, allowing the exploitation of remote monitoring and control capabilities through the 5G radio infrastructure: this will enable the so-called «machine intelligence» (e.g., computerization, automation, robotics, Artificial Intelligence) to enter deeply into  the processes of industries, agriculture, public institutions, society and eventually into our lives, as Users. Overall this will determine costs optimizations  and the development of new business and services opportunities.

Connectivity will bring on line so many devices that the sheer number of connected points will exceed the thresholds on manageability using today’s paradigm. It will be connectivity but also processing and storing data, more like a nervous system, dynamically changing around stability points minimizing energy consumption.

This will change the rules of the game, in terms of business and economic sustainability and regulatory frameworks. From a technical point of view, it will revolutionize our ideas of networks and future service ecosystems.

5G-controlled robots (or drones, or any other self-acting machine) is an excellent example of potential future ecosystem. Already today there are robots to work alongside people on a few manufacturing production lines. In  many cases robots are augmenting the abilities of humans — freeing them to do repetitively or dangerous tasks – and increasing productivity for manufacturers. Nevertheless today robot full mobility is still a challenge, being most of said machines static or connected with cables, limiting the flexibility. 5G will allow not only monitoring and controlling truly mobile robots, but also it will allow the development and provision of “cognition services” (Cognition-as-a-Service). Robot sensors could collect data from the environments which will be transferred thought the 5G to Cloud Computing facilities where a variety of methods and techniques will execute the remotely the “intelligence” of the robot, whose decisions will be transferred to the robot local actuations. 

Moreover availability of APIs will allow Users and Third Parties to develop, program and provide any related services with Robots. So, the next generation of 5G-enabled robots will work alongside humans also in Smart Cities, collaborating with them in far more articulated ways in the daily life.